ATLAS · FUSION VIEW

Prosperity & Family Size

Fertility rate as colour, income per person as bubbles. The single clearest pattern in world demography — the richer a country, the fewer children per woman — laid over one map, with the exceptions made obvious.

COLOUR

Fertility Rate

Average births per woman over a lifetime, World Bank. About 2.1 is the replacement level.

World Bank Open Data · 2024

BUBBLE SIZE

GDP per capita

GDP divided by population, current US$, World Bank.

World Bank Open Data · 2024

How strongly do they move together?

r = -0.78strong · inverse · n=214

Across the 214 countries with both figures, fertility rate and gdp per capita move in opposite directions a strong amount — as one rises, the other tends to fall (correlation r = -0.78). That’s a clear, dependable pattern; the map below makes it visible at a glance.

Correlation is measured across the 214countries that have both figures, in each metric’s own scale (log scale where the map uses one). Correlation is not causation — it only measures whether the two tend to track each other.

Deep green marks high fertility; the largest bubbles mark the richest economies. The two are almost mirror images — this is the demographic transition, one of the most reliable relationships in all of social science. Big bubbles sit on the palest, lowest-fertility ground. The countries to look twice at are the ones with a large bubble AND deep colour — wealth that has not yet pulled family size down — and the rare poor country that has already fallen below replacement.

Who fits the pattern — and who breaks it

Two ways to read the map. On the left, the countries that most clearly follow the relationship; on the right, the ones that most defy it — the exceptions worth a closer look.

FOLLOW THE PATTERN
CountryFertilityGDP / capita
Guatemala2.29$6.2K
Ethiopia3.91$1.1K
Ghana3.34$2.4K
Central African Republic5.95$516
Mozambique4.69$657
Eswatini2.72$3.9K
DEFY THE PATTERN
CountryFertilityGDP / capita
Israel2.87$54.2K
Ukraine0.99$5.4K
Guam2.75$41.8K
Monaco2.10$288K
Thailand1.20$7.3K
Bhutan1.45$3.8K

Understand the underlying numbers

See each layer on its own

TWO LAYERS, ONE MAP

Try another pairing, or build your own in the live Atlas.

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